So I've known for the better part of a decade now that there's a significant hidden mechanic when it comes to newgens, that seems to be the unique nation itself or something along these lines.
The picture I had about newgen mechanics is:
Junior coaching ~40% PA effect Nation youth rating ~25% PA effect Youth recruitment ~25% PA effect Club reputation acts as tie breaker for youth recruitment Either unique nation or division ID ~25% (or perhaps even more) PA effect (a hidden, unchangeable factor - it may be 'Nation attribute template' that is listed as an inaccessible debug option in the editor, which sounds like it would be similar to the 'Nation personality template' before it was removed in recent versions) All other factors no effect
How I found this is by swapping England and Romania completely, after realizing the numbers didn't add up after deducing the relevant factors and trying to calculate outcomes with them. It took a lot of work so I've never repeated it since.
It occurred to me that there's a simpler way of going about it: Make every club, division, and nation have identical relevant attributes, and measure the median PA differences that result.
The idea worked:
France 120.6 England 116.5 Spain 110.3 Germany 110.2 Brazil 109.5 South Africa 107.4 Argentina 106.7 Russia 104.5 Italy 100.8 Switzerland 98.4 Singapore 73.0 Gibraltar 64.5
This means that all things being equal, a newgen at a France Div 1 club will have 20% more PA than a newgen at Italian club, on average.
The formula I've come up with based on this is as follows:
((Junior Coaching x 1.5)+(Youth Recruitment)+(Youth Rating/10)+(Factor X))x1.15
Factor X is the hidden nation/division factor, and it is 62 for England with all other nations to be set proportional to it (i.e. Singapore 73 PA > England 116.5 PA = Singapore 25 Factor X > England 62 Factor X).
It's not perfect, but it seems work quite well (keep in mind random fluctuation of ~5 PA is normal with newgen intakes, and up to ~15 PA fluctuation is not unusual):
((10x1.5)+(10)+(13.5)+(62))x1.15 = 115.575 - England (artificial) average 116.5 ((10x1.5)+(10)+(13.5)+(25))x1.15 = 73.025 - Singapore (artificial) average 73.05
((19x1.5)+(20)+(13.5)+(62))x1.15 = 142.6 - Man City (England) 139
West Ham (15JC/15YR) is equivalent to a maxxed out 20JC/20YR club in Italy. A maxxed out 20JC/20YR Singapore club is exactly equivalent to 1JC/1YR in the English Premier League.
Brentford (7JC/7YR) = 106.95 10JC/10YR Argentina = 106.57 15JC/15YR Switzerland = 107.05 20JC/20YR Singapore = 90.27 1JC/1YR England = 89.7
Rough data for other countries (-/+20):
Norway 112.5 Israel 111.9 China 111 Hungary 111 Japan 108.8 South Korea 107 Mexico 106 Chile 105.5 Australia 104 Bulgaria 103 Finland 102.5 Scotland 101.5 Romania 100.5 Slovenia 100 Wales 97.5 Turkey 93 Belarus 90 Ireland 83.5 Canada 82.5 Hong Kong 79 N. Ireland 67
Here's what was controlled (made identical):
Nation region Nation game importance Nation state of development Nation youth rating Nation reputation Nation tactical attributes (including preferred formations) Nation economic power Nation FA financial power Nation ranking points Club reputation Club morale Club training Club youth coaching Club youth facilities Club youth recruitment Club youth importance Club corporate facilities Club preferred formation Continent regional strength Division reputation
Only Division level 1 teams were altered Professional status is not controlled, I overlooked this one So the controls aren't exhaustive, but they're pretty extensive
Facilities & morale were set to 10. Club rep to 5000. Nation rep to 7000. Nation youth rating to 135. Basically I went for something moderately high, just to help rule out extremes messing things up somehow.
MeanOnSunday said: I thought competition reputation was editable. Also wouldn’t the country population have a large impact? Expand I forgot to add that to the control list, but yes, it was actually controlled for. I'll add it in. I set competition reputation of all Level 1 divisions to 130.
I don't have competition reputation on my list of factors, which means it shouldn't have any effect on PA. I can't actually remember this, since I tested it back in 2020, but I can confirm my 2020 notes say it has no effect on PA. Note that CA works a bit differently.
Country population has no impact - we know it can't be a hidden factor, because there are obvious counter-examples and rationales we can infer: China and India have much higher populations than England. If population mattered, even a little in regards to certain cases, it would make a real mess of things.
Further suggestive evidence for this is that cities and regions don't matter, and turn out to be entirely cosmetic under careful examination.
All the talk you've heard from SI staff about it taking into account economic factor, youth facilities, players being recruited from nearby cities, etc. is baloney.
So I've known for the better part of a decade now that there's a significant hidden mechanic when it comes to newgens, that seems to be the unique nation itself or something along these lines.
The picture I had about newgen mechanics is:
Junior coaching ~40% PA effect
Nation youth rating ~25% PA effect
Youth recruitment ~25% PA effect
Club reputation acts as tie breaker for youth recruitment
Either unique nation or division ID ~25% (or perhaps even more) PA effect (a hidden, unchangeable factor - it may be 'Nation attribute template' that is listed as an inaccessible debug option in the editor, which sounds like it would be similar to the 'Nation personality template' before it was removed in recent versions)
All other factors no effect
How I found this is by swapping England and Romania completely, after realizing the numbers didn't add up after deducing the relevant factors and trying to calculate outcomes with them. It took a lot of work so I've never repeated it since.
It occurred to me that there's a simpler way of going about it: Make every club, division, and nation have identical relevant attributes, and measure the median PA differences that result.
The idea worked:
France 120.6
England 116.5
Spain 110.3
Germany 110.2
Brazil 109.5
South Africa 107.4
Argentina 106.7
Russia 104.5
Italy 100.8
Switzerland 98.4
Singapore 73.0
Gibraltar 64.5
This means that all things being equal, a newgen at a France Div 1 club will have 20% more PA than a newgen at Italian club, on average.
The formula I've come up with based on this is as follows:
((Junior Coaching x 1.5)+(Youth Recruitment)+(Youth Rating/10)+(Factor X))x1.15
Factor X is the hidden nation/division factor, and it is 62 for England with all other nations to be set proportional to it (i.e. Singapore 73 PA > England 116.5 PA = Singapore 25 Factor X > England 62 Factor X).
It's not perfect, but it seems work quite well (keep in mind random fluctuation of ~5 PA is normal with newgen intakes, and up to ~15 PA fluctuation is not unusual):
((10x1.5)+(10)+(13.5)+(62))x1.15 = 115.575 - England (artificial) average 116.5
((10x1.5)+(10)+(13.5)+(25))x1.15 = 73.025 - Singapore (artificial) average 73.05
((19x1.5)+(20)+(13.5)+(62))x1.15 = 142.6 - Man City (England) 139
((15x1.5)+(19)+(14.4)+(49.14))x1.15 = 120.796 - Blu-neri (Italy) 120
((14x1.5)+(14)+(14.4)+(49.14))x1.15 = 113.32 - Torino (Italy) 108
((3x1.5)+(15)+(3.5)+(25))x1.15 = 55.2 - Tampines (Singapore) 54.5, 51
((2x1.5)+(9)+(3.5)+(25))x1.15 = 46.575 Balestier (Singapore) 24, 28
((7x1.5)+(8)+(9)+(46.59))x1.15 = 85.2 Yverdon (Switzerland) 70, 90
((17x1.5)+(18)+(9)+(46.59))x1.15 = 113.95 Zurich (Switzerland) 83.5, 111.5
((11x1.5)+(6)+(9)+(46.59))x1.15 = 89.8 - Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (Switzerland) 90.5, 96
((13x1.5)+(13)+(16.3)+(56.05))x1.15 = 120.57 - AMG (Brazil) 126
((11x1.5)+(9)+(16.3)+(56.05))x1.15 = 112.53 - CUI (Brazil) 103
((14x1.5)+(18)+(16.3)+(56.05))x1.15 = 128.05 - FLU (Brazil) 121
((15x1.5)+(17)+(16.3)+(56.05))x1.15 = 128.63 - SEP (Brazil) 130.5
((7x1.5)+(12)+(16.3)+(56.05))x1.15 = 109.08 - FOR (Brazil) 100
((15x1.5)+(14)+(14)+(53.67))x1.15 = 119.795 - Argentinos Jrs. (Argentina) 116
((9x1.5)+(13)+(14)+(53.67))x1.15 = 108.29 - Atl Tucuman (Argentina) 105
((7x1.5)+(10)+(14)+(53.67))x1.15 = 101.395 - Central Cordoba (SdE) (Argentina) 104
((14x1.5)+(14)+(14)+(53.67))x1.15 = 118.07 - Estudiantes (LP) (Argentina) 124.5
((4x1.5)+(11)+(14)+(53.67))x1.15 = 97.37 - Barracas Central (Argentina) 101.5
((19x1.5)+(20)+(14.5)+(56.71))x1.15 = 137.66 - Barcelona (Spain) 126, 138.5
((14x1.5)+(15)+(14.5)+(56.71))x1.15 = 123.29 - Real Hispalis (Spain) 125, 124
((11x1.5)+(13)+(14.5)+(56.71))x1.15 = 115.816 - Almeria (Spain) 112.5, 101
West Ham (15JC/15YR) is equivalent to a maxxed out 20JC/20YR club in Italy.
A maxxed out 20JC/20YR Singapore club is exactly equivalent to 1JC/1YR in the English Premier League.
Brentford (7JC/7YR) = 106.95
10JC/10YR Argentina = 106.57
15JC/15YR Switzerland = 107.05
20JC/20YR Singapore = 90.27
1JC/1YR England = 89.7
Rough data for other countries (-/+20):
Norway 112.5
Israel 111.9
China 111
Hungary 111
Japan 108.8
South Korea 107
Mexico 106
Chile 105.5
Australia 104
Bulgaria 103
Finland 102.5
Scotland 101.5
Romania 100.5
Slovenia 100
Wales 97.5
Turkey 93
Belarus 90
Ireland 83.5
Canada 82.5
Hong Kong 79
N. Ireland 67
Here's what was controlled (made identical):
Nation region
Nation game importance
Nation state of development
Nation youth rating
Nation reputation
Nation tactical attributes (including preferred formations)
Nation economic power
Nation FA financial power
Nation ranking points
Club reputation
Club morale
Club training
Club youth coaching
Club youth facilities
Club youth recruitment
Club youth importance
Club corporate facilities
Club preferred formation
Continent regional strength
Division reputation
Only Division level 1 teams were altered
Professional status is not controlled, I overlooked this one
So the controls aren't exhaustive, but they're pretty extensive
Facilities & morale were set to 10. Club rep to 5000. Nation rep to 7000. Nation youth rating to 135. Basically I went for something moderately high, just to help rule out extremes messing things up somehow.
Reserved.
Reserved.
I thought competition reputation was editable. Also wouldn’t the country population have a large impact?
MeanOnSunday said: I thought competition reputation was editable. Also wouldn’t the country population have a large impact?
I forgot to add that to the control list, but yes, it was actually controlled for. I'll add it in. I set competition reputation of all Level 1 divisions to 130.
I don't have competition reputation on my list of factors, which means it shouldn't have any effect on PA. I can't actually remember this, since I tested it back in 2020, but I can confirm my 2020 notes say it has no effect on PA. Note that CA works a bit differently.
Country population has no impact - we know it can't be a hidden factor, because there are obvious counter-examples and rationales we can infer: China and India have much higher populations than England. If population mattered, even a little in regards to certain cases, it would make a real mess of things.
Further suggestive evidence for this is that cities and regions don't matter, and turn out to be entirely cosmetic under careful examination.
All the talk you've heard from SI staff about it taking into account economic factor, youth facilities, players being recruited from nearby cities, etc. is baloney.