Understanding the results of FM-Arena tactic testing

by Zippo, Jan 15, 2024

Hey there,

It's really important to understand how to translate the results of FM-Arena tactic testing into your normal save.

In FM-Arena tactic testing league all teams are equal in terms of the quality, there're no strong and weak teams in the league.

But when you play a normal save in a normal league then there're always strong and weak teams.

For example, when you play a normal save and manage one of top clubs such as Man City, Liverpool, Barcelona, Real Madrid then using a top tactic from FM-Arena tactic testing you can end up a season with 100 points or more, which means you get about 87% of the possible points.

Now let's look at two following tactics:

4231 Hegemony (through) underlap - https://fm-arena.com/thread/7721-4231-hegemony-through-underlap/

433 BPrinciples - https://fm-arena.com/thread/8791-433-bprinciples/

In FM-Arena Tactic Testing the first tactic "4231 Hegemony (through) underlap" got 63 points and the second tactic "433 BPrinciples" got 56 points so there's a 7 points difference between the tactics.

Please notice, in FM-Arena Tactic Testing those two tactics managed to get only about 55% of the possible points but what if we "buff" the human controlled teams in the testing league to be able to get at least 75% of the possible points and test our tactics to see how their results change.


Human Controlled Teams are buffed to get at least 75% of the possible points:




As you can see, we buffed the human controlled team to be able to get at 75% of the possible points instead of 55% and the difference between the tactics reduced from 7 points to 3.

Now, image what happen to the difference if we further "buff" the human controlled teams to be able to get at least 85% of the possible possible, it isn't hard to predict that the difference will decrease further from 3 points to 0.

The above means that when you manage a top club such Man City, Liverpool, Barcelona, Real Madrid or other then you can use "4231 Hegemony (through) underlap" tactic or "433 BPrinciples" tactic and most of time you won't notice any difference between them despite the 7 points difference in FM-Arena tactic testing.


WOOOT?



Now, let's nerf the human controller teams in the testing league so they will able to get only 27% of the possible points and test our tactics again.




Human Controlled Teams are nerfed to get only 27% of the possible points:




As you can see the difference between the tactics disappeared. :)

The above means that the better/worse your players compared with your opponent players, the less your tactic matters.

We all know that many people prefer testing tactic with the strongest and weakest teams in the league but you can see that such choice is the worst because in this case the quality of the tactic play a very small role.

Cheers.

5

Hey @Zippo ,

Thank you for the insightful post and the effort you've put into explaining the dynamics of FM-Arena tactic testing. It's indeed crucial to understand how these results translate into the diverse environments of regular saves as this question is so often raised between the community.

Your demonstration with both tactics is quite revealing. The influence of human-controlled team performance on tactic effectiveness is a key factor that many might overlook. Buffing or nerfing these teams significantly alters the perception of a tactic's quality.

The demonstration prompts an important question: should we focus on testing tactics with mid-table teams in the Premier League (or any league) rather than the extremes of strong and weak teams?

Opting for a mid-table team in the Premier League for example could provide a more realistic challenge and better perception to a tactic more optimal quality. Since mid-table teams often face a mix of strong and weak opponents it could present a balanced test for tactics.

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on this perspective!

Best regards,
Juwow

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juwow said: Opting for a mid-table team in the Premier League for example could provide a more realistic challenge and better perception to a tactic more optimal quality. Since mid-table teams often face a mix of strong and weak opponents it could present a balanced test for tactics.

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on this perspective!

Best regards,
Juwow


Hey, pal.

Normal saves are meant for normal play and joy. :)  They are not designed for testing. Obvious, playing a normal save you can distinct a very poor tactic from a very good tactic but not more than that.

As you can see when you play with a very strong team or a very weak team then your tactic plays a small role and when you play with a mid-table team then you get hit by the RNG

https://fm-arena.com/thread/2713-10-944-matches-tested-fm-rng-measured/

If you check the link above then you'll see that even in such "perfect" league as FM-Arena testing league where all possible RNG factors are eliminated there's still about -/+ 25 points RNG when comes to 38 matches.

Speaking other words, when you play a normal save and you manage a mid-table team then at the end of season with the same tactic your result gets a random adjustment between -25 and +25 points, I'm sure there's no need to explain, that it's very hard to test anything with such high RNG.

2

Thanks, @Zippo. That's really an interesting read.

1

Here's another test.

In normal saves top tactics from FM-Arena allows end up a season with 95-100 points when you manage a top club such as Man City, Liverpool, Barcelona, Real Madrid, PSG and other.

We boosted the human controlled teams in FM-Arena tactic testing league so that they were able to reach 100 points (translated into 38 matches) with one of the top tactics.

The following 3 tactics were taken for the test:

4231 Hegemony (through) underlap - https://fm-arena.com/thread/7721-4231-hegemony-through-underlap/

433 BPrinciples - https://fm-arena.com/thread/8791-433-bprinciples/

433 Flat BPrinciples https://fm-arena.com/thread/8799-433-flat-bprinciples/



The default FM-Arena scores:

63 Points - 4231 Hegemony (through) underlap
56 Points - 433 BPrinciples
49 Points - 433 Flat BPrinciples





Human Controlled Teams are boosted to get 100pts (87% of the possible points):




- the difference between "4231 Hegemony (through) underlap" tactic and "433 BPrinciples" tactic reduced from "7" to "2" points.

- the difference between "4231 Hegemony (through) underlap" tactic and "433 Flat BPrinciples" tactic reduced from "14" to "5" points.



As you can see even a tactic that scored 49 pts in FM-Arena testing such as 433 Flat BPrinciples in a normal save still would give you 95 points with top club such as Man City, Liverpool, Barcelona, Real Madrid, PSG and other, and 95 points usually enough for winning the league comfortably.

It's clear that an advantage in the players' quality neglects any weakness in your tactic. The better/worse your players compared with your opponent players, the less your tactic matters.

Cheers.

4

Very interesting information as i always struggle to compare tactics to my saves.

@zippo Would you elaborate more on what you mean by "buffing" or "nerfing" a team? Getting better players than you would in a testing league or is it something else?

Thanks in advance

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Khalvito said: Would you elaborate more on what you mean by "buffing" or "nerfing" a team?

It means just increasing/decreasing players' attributes, that's all. :)

1

Am just a bit confused, when I look at the tactics testing tables, I notice as well as results for each patch, there is a also a plug and play table. Which would be the definitive list to try, the latest patch or the plug & play

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masonma71 said: Am just a bit confused, when I look at the tactics testing tables, I notice as well as results for each patch, there is a also a plug and play table. Which would be the definitive list to try, the latest patch or the plug & play

It's the same results, except plug&play has tactics that don't require players natural in uncommon positions (for example MR/L) or an unusual number of players in same position (3 strikers)

0

Yarema said: It's the same results, except plug&play has tactics that don't require players natural in uncommon positions (for example MR/L) or an unusual number of players in same position (3 strikers)

Ah, understand, thanks for clarifying that

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