MythBusters: "The AI learns your tactic" | "Tactics work only for one season"

by Rince, Mar 25, 2021

Hey,

I don't even know how many times I've seen someone says: "Damn, my tactic has stopped working. I'm getting a worse result in the current season than it was in the previous season despite the fact that my team has improved compared to the previous season. Probably, that's due to the AI has figured out my tactic and now I need to change it."

Argghhh... my eyes start bleeding every time I see someone says that. :devil:

The AI doesn't learn your tactic - there's simply no such game mechanics in FM.

So you might ask then why your results in the current season might be worse than it was in the previous season despite improving your team?

There are few logical explanations for that:

- Yes, your team might improved compared to the previous season but didn't you think that the other teams in the league might improved as well or further more, they might improved even more than your team. The AI managers don't sit idle, they also make transfers and try to improve their teams. The players in their teams also develop and they might developed even more than your players.

- When you do well the reputation of your team increases, which means the AI manages start to take your team more seriously than before and they start to use more resources in matches against your teams and that's why the difficulty increases after a successful season.

- You were just very lucky in the previous season and in the current season you are very unlucky. Yes, it could be as simple as that. Like in real life the luck is a significant factor in FM too. If you don't want depending on the luck then your team must be much stronger than any other team in the league but that's hardly achievable when you play in the most reputable and competitive leagues in the game such as English Premier League or Spanish La Liga and that's why these leagues always will be very challenging.

I strongly advise you to think twice before dropping your tactic because when you are unhappy with your results then your tactic might not be the reason of that and your tactic might be a very good tactic and there just might not be any better tactic that gets you a better result with your current players so it could be you that should think on getting better players and not on getting a better tactic because your tactic might be very close to the best what you can get when it comes to the tactic.

Here's my experience of using the same tactic for 3 seasons in EPL - https://fm-arena.com/find-comment/3397/

I urge you to stop spreading stupid myths, it confuses newcomers.

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There are also other factors. For example, some players don't rest during holiday, playing international matches instead. That builds up fatigue, which makes them play worse, even with 100% condition. Another factor is happiness, since in the second year players start complaining more about playing time and new contracts. Your players can also get complacent for winning matches and growing in stature, meaning you must keep challenging them to keep their level high.

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I had that problem i  my second season with West Ham after dominate and won double in first,strugled to get results even against small teams,then i was so frustrated and decided to restart 2 season with different tactic but with the same players and guess what,i am dominating again,so its not stupid myths,explane me that please??

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babemocni1988 said: I had that problem i  my second season with West Ham after dominate and won double in first,strugled to get results even against small teams,then i was so frustrated and decided to restart 2 season with different tactic but with the same players and guess what,i am dominating again,so its not stupid myths,explane me that please??

If your team isn't the strongest team by far in the league then even with the most effective tactic the luck factor still play a significant role for you.

If you play with some mid table team in EPL then you can get 5 loses in a row but after you load and replay the matches you can get 5 wins with the same tactic.

The RNG is just huge in this game and the stronger your team compared to your opponents and the better your tactic, the less RNG you get.

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Rince said: If your team isn't the strongest team by far in the league then even with the most effective tactic the luck factor still play a significant role for you.

If you play with some mid table team in EPL then you can get 5 loses in a row but after you load and replay the matches you can get 5 wins with the same tactic.

The RNG is just huge in this game and the stronger your team compared to your opponents and the better your tactic, the less RNG you get.


I have done just that for many time,reloaded to see where is the problem and again the same results,i am not amater,i play this game for a long time,i just want to find solution thats all because there is no explination why for example match against Man utd who buyed just 2 players in second season beat me 4:0,reloaded also and again lost few times,and in first season i beat them 3 times,plus dominated in match,and now i switched tactic and doing wonders again,so i would ask myself again does AI read tactics,oh Hell yes!

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babemocni1988 said: I have done just that for many time,reloaded to see where is the problem and again the same results,i am not amater,i play this game for a long time,i just want to find solution thats all because there is no explination why for example match against Man utd who buyed just 2 players in second season beat me 4:0,reloaded also and again lost few times,and in first season i beat them 3 times,plus dominated in match,and now i switched tactic and doing wonders again,so i would ask myself again does AI read tactics,oh Hell yes!

Can you upload your save ?

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I will,do you want to try to do something,test is by yourself?

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babemocni1988 said: I will,do you want to try to do something,test is by yourself?

I have never got AI learned my team's tactic. I want to have a look on it

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The game works in a way that the more you win, the higher your chance to lose, since your players build complacency. The same way, the more you lose, the higher your chance to keep losing, since you lose morale. You need to manage those two things to make your team consistent.

Maybe you had a set of players in a bad streak, like the shadow strikers, then you changed to a tactic that don't depend as much on those players. Then it increased your morale and you started winning, while if you lost you would enter a dark spiral.

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Still i am not convinced..now i am playing my shadows as a strikers and they score...that was not a problem,can you explane me why i didnt see higlights almoust at all..and why team is getung results now with different tactic..THE SAME TEAM??

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ta2199 said: I have never got AI learned my team's tactic. I want to have a look on it

I would upload it,no problem,just now i play with different tactic..

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ta2199 said: I have never got AI learned my team's tactic. I want to have a look on it

here is it

https://www.mediafire.com/file/nhb78nvig55t1nv/Ivan+Barbic+-+West+Ham.fm/file
this was my first 11 dominated first season
Buyed left back to replace creswell,BPD to replace Ogbona,right back to replace Fridricks,and added replacement for one shadow by Nikola Vlasic amazing Shadow...
and my results was awfull...

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Here you go :

8 Points clear in the top seem ok to me

Save file: https://www.mediafire.com/file/ft2oe6ui1nc5cca/Ivan_Barbic_-_West_Ham.fm/file

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babemocni1988 said: here is it

https://www.mediafire.com/file/nhb78nvig55t1nv/Ivan+Barbic+-+West+Ham.fm/file
this was my first 11 dominated first season
Buyed left back to replace creswell,BPD to replace Ogbona,right back to replace Fridricks,and added replacement for one shadow by Nikola Vlasic amazing Shadow...
and my results was awfull...


I've looked into your save and found that your team is predicted to finish the 8th place so in the second season your team is still nothing special, it's just a mid table team. I don't get... what's your expectation? Are you expecting to get 110 pts?





Have you thought that the crazy results you got in the first season could be due to being extremely lucky?

And in the second season the extreme luck is gone and the results will be less crazy but still they will be better than your your media prediction.

It looks like some people just don't understand that sometimes in this game you can be very lucky/unlucky but that's the way the game works.

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Lapidus said: I've looked into your save and found that your team is predicted to finish the 8th place so in the second season your team is still nothing special, it's just a mid table team. I don't get... what's your expectation? Are you expecting to get 110 pts?





Have you thought that the crazy results you got in the first season could be due to being extremely lucky?

And in the second season the extreme luck is gone and the results will be less crazy but still they will be better than your your media prediction.

It looks like some people just don't understand that sometimes in this game you can be very lucky/unlucky but that's the way the game works.


extreamly lucky in 50 games I dont think so pal :)

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ta2199 said: Here you go :

8 Points clear in the top seem ok to me

Save file: https://www.mediafire.com/file/ft2oe6ui1nc5cca/Ivan_Barbic_-_West_Ham.fm/file


holiday mode or?

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ta2199 said: Here you go :

8 Points clear in the top seem ok to me

Save file: https://www.mediafire.com/file/ft2oe6ui1nc5cca/Ivan_Barbic_-_West_Ham.fm/file


Lapidus this is extremly lucky again or??

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babemocni1988 said: extreamly lucky in 50 games I dont think so pal :)

Generally speaking, 50 matches is nothing in the scale of FM.

You don't need be very lucky in all matches during the season, you just  need to lucky in some matches against stronger opponents.

Just check one of the recent FM-Arena tests - https://fm-arena.com/tactic/990-lsplaysfm-s-4-1-2-1-2-unbreakable-diamond-2-0/

Test #3

Both teams got 261 pts( the 1st place and the 3rd place )




Test #6

Both teams got 230 pts( the 2nd place and the 5th places)

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babemocni1988 said: Lapidus this is extremly lucky again or??

The luck is present in every match and in every area of the game.

With a weaker team you need more luck to win than with a stronger team.

With a less effective tactic you need more luck to win than with a more effective tactic.

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Lapidus said: Generally speaking, 50 matches is nothing in the scale of FM.

You don't need be lucky in all matches during the season, just in some matches against strongest opponents.

Just check one of the recent FM-Arena tests - https://fm-arena.com/tactic/990-lsplaysfm-s-4-1-2-1-2-unbreakable-diamond-2-0/

Test #3

Both teams got 261 pts( the 1st place and the 3rd place






Test #6

Both teams got 230 pts( the 2nd place and the 5th places)



I dont agree,i was strugling even against smaller teams,and got destroyed in some matches against stronger teams,remember I was dominating all the first season from day one!

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And i think so I was not the only one having this problems in second seasons,and people often find excuses in new singings,team moral,reputation increased and blalalala,nobody from you guys wants to admit that AI read tactics,that is the fact,happend to me even playing on other patches this year,and playing on the previous FM 2020
Factor of the lucky is big for sure but the problem was not there...problem is that your team just doesnt crush opponents like before and you start conceding stupid goals also,your match higlights are not showing like before and you dont create like before,you need insane fast players on CM,SS and Wing position to be able to fight against ME,this is why tactic doesnt stop working for big teams who have players flighting all over the pitch!
That is my opinion as i sad and i would like that someone can do to change my mind...

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babemocni1988 said: And i think so I was not the only one having this problems in second seasons,and people often find excuses in new singings,team moral,reputation increased and blalalala,nobody from you guys wants to admit that AI read tactics,that is the fact,happend to me even playing on other patches this year,and playing on the previous FM 2020
Factor of the lucky is big for sure but the problem was not there...problem is that your team just doesnt crush opponents like before and you start conceding stupid goals also,your match higlights are not showing like before and you dont create like before,you need insane fast players on CM,SS and Wing position to be able to fight against ME,this is why tactic doesnt stop working for big teams who have players flighting all over the pitch!
That is my opinion as i sad and i would like that someone can do to change my mind...


I don't understand why you are claiming your opinion is a fact, based solely in feelings and in your personal experience, ignoring the experience of everyone else. I mean, it's very easy to find a counter-example to what you are saying. Run a season in holiday mode or instant mode. Then save and continue it without any new hiring, with the same tactics, then reload and repeat 5 times. Now reload and go with another tactic. I doubt the results will be much different than what you would expect from each tactic. Just so you know, the same tactic can variate more than 15 points in the same save, with the same tactics.

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babemocni1988 said: That is my opinion as i sad and i would like that someone can do to change my mind...

All my life experience tells me that almost always an attempt to change someone's mind is just a waste of time so I won't do that. :)

Some people believe that aliens in charge of everything on the Earth. Some people believe that SI releases patches with some secret/undocumented changes to screw up their tactics. Some people believe that you get much better results when you play matches in the 2D mode instead of the 3D mode...

I'd prefer leaving people alone and allowing them to believe in what they want to believe :)

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babemocni1988 said: Factor of the lucky is big for sure but the problem was not there...

You don't need any luck only if you are Barcelona and you play vs an amateur club but even in that case there's still like 0.0000001% probability of losing.

If your team aren't much better than your opponents then even with the most effective tactic there's still a huge room for the luck to kick in.

Some time ago in attempt to measure the RNG in EPL I made few tests - https://fm-arena.com/thread/442-my-attempt-to-measure-the-game-rng-random-number-generator/

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Lapidus said: All my life experience tells me that almost always an attempt to change someone's mind is just a waste of time so I won't do that. :)

Some people believe that aliens in charge of everything on the Earth. Some people believe that SI releases patches with some secret/undocumented changes to screw up their tactics. Some people believe that you get much better results when you play matches in the 2D mode instead of the 3D mode...

I'd prefer leaving people alone and allowing them to believe in what they want to believe :)


Hahhaha yeah I would sad the same thing for all of you who thinks that AI doesnt read the tactic 🤣

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babemocni1988 said: Hahhaha yeah I would sad the same thing for all of you who thinks that AI doesnt read the tactic 🤣

In my RTG Nottingham Forest save I was using Phoenix 4.0 the whole time, not one change to the tacitc, unless we had injuries to the team (this was before the new patch)

In the championship we finished 3rd, but we got promoted

1st season in the Premier league: 6th
2nd Season: 3rd
3rd Season: 3rd (Europa League Win)
4th season: 2nd (Won UCL and FA Cup)
5th season: Won the league (Won FA Cup, lost in UCL Final)
6th season: Won the league by over 15 points (UCL,and FA Cup secured too)

In all of those seasons, we always went through a rough patch during December and January as that is when the players start getting tired with the amount of games played in such little time and it is the peak of injuries, sickness as well, it even got me thinking the CPU knew how to go against my tactic but we were back in form by the beginning of February

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infxamus said: In my RTG Nottingham Forest save I was using Phoenix 4.0 the whole time, not one change to the tacitc, unless we had injuries to the team (this was before the new patch)

In the championship we finished 3rd, but we got promoted

1st season in the Premier league: 6th
2nd Season: 3rd
3rd Season: 3rd (Europa League Win)
4th season: 2nd (Won UCL and FA Cup)
5th season: Won the league (Won FA Cup, lost in UCL Final)
6th season: Won the league by over 15 points (UCL,and FA Cup secured too)

In all of those seasons, we always went through a rough patch during December and January as that is when the players start getting tired with the amount of games played in such little time and it is the peak of injuries, sickness as well, it even got me thinking the CPU knew how to go against my tactic but we were back in form by the beginning of February


By the end of the season you have not only fatigue, but also more decisive matches and pressure from the title race. That makes the team perform worse if they don't have the right mentality.

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I can understand @babemocni1988's feeling because I also have been fallen that trap many times.

Sometimes, you can have just an incredible season due to being very lucky and that makes you think that you've found an invincible tactic and it gives you false expectations, you start to think that in the next season your results must be even better or at least as good as they are in this season and when it doesn't happen you get very upset.

The RGN is huge in FM... so don't let any lucky results to trick you.


For example, I've played 2 matches with Man City vs Liverpool

In the 1st match I lost 2 : 0 and got dominated badly



Then I replayed the match using the same tactic and the same players and I won it 0 - 4 with great domination.

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Grimlock said: I can understand @babemocni1988's feeling because I also have been fallen that trap many times.

Sometimes, you can have just an incredible season due to being very lucky and that makes you think that you've found an invincible tactic and it gives you false expectations, you start to think that in the next season your results must be even better or at least as good as they are in this season and when it didn't happen you get very upset.

The RGN is huge in FM... so don't let any lucky results to trick you.


For example, I've played 2 matches with Man City vs Liverpool

In the 1st match I lost 2 : 0 and got dominated badly



Then I replayed the match using the same tactic and the same players and I won it 0 - 4 with great domination.



I just think so that you can not be lucky all season in 38 games,with different saves,winning all the time in first season with underdog...for me is mistery what happend in second season...why they are not deadly like in first,in every match at least against medium teams,like yours?

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ZaZ said: By the end of the season you have not only fatigue, but also more decisive matches and pressure from the title race. That makes the team perform worse if they don't have the right mentality.

i understand and agree with that but i speak about start of the season,not the end of one

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