4222N Paradox Engine

4222N Paradox Engine

So it can be 3 points as well

Delicious said: So it can be 3 points as well Expand

Unforutanlty, without knowing the fractional part of the score number it's hard to say for sure because it could be like this:

After 1,200 matches the score might be 51.5111 points, which will be rounded to 52 points

and after 4,000 matches the score might be 49.4999 which will be rounded to 49 points

So without knowing the fractional part you see that there's 3 points difference ( 52 - 49 = 3 ) between the 1,200 matches and 4,000 matches tests, when actually, there's only 2.01 points difference ( 51.5111 - 49.4999 = 2.01 )



In general, at this point we've simulated 1,088,000 matches under our new testing database and we've got the following RNG statistic:

There's 45% probability of changing the result more than "1 point" between 1,200 matches and 4,000 matches.

There's 12,5% probability of changing the result more than "2 points" between 1,200 matches and 4,000 matches.

There's 1,4% probability of changing the result more than "3 points" between 1,200 matches and 4,000 matches.


So in theory there could be 3 points difference between 1,200 matches and 4,000 matches but the probably of it is about 1.4%. Btw, I've checked the result of this tactic and this tactic hit it.


Also, I want to add that there might be 1 - 1.5 points RNG even between two 4,000 matches tests of the same tactic. For example, if we take the current top tactic(424 Bombyte Tweak), which has a score of 57.4465 points, and we test it one more time for 4,000 matches then its score might vary +/- 1-1.5 points around 57.4465.

So you always should consider that there might be at least 1 point RNG even after 4,000 matches. In terms of FM, 1 point RNG is nothing because when you play FM in normal way and the length of your season is 38 matches then your RNG might be as high as 20-25 points and such RNG is a normal thing for underdogs and mid table teams, of course, for the strongest teams in the league the RNG is much smaller but still it's much higher than the 1 point that we have after 4,000 matches on our test.

Zippo said: Unforutanlty, without knowing the fractional part of the score number it's hard to say for sure because it could be like this:

After 1,200 matches the score might be 51.5111 points, which will be rounded to 52 points

and after 4,000 matches the score might be 49.4999 which will be rounded to 49 points

So without knowing the fractional part you see that there's 3 points difference ( 52 - 49 = 3 ) between the 1,200 matches and 4,000 matches tests, when actually, there's only 2.01 points difference ( 51.5111 - 49.4999 = 2.01 )



In general, at this point we've simulated 1,088,000 matches under our new testing database and we've got the following RNG statistic:

There's 45% probability of changing the result more than 1 point between 1,200 matches and 4,000 matches.

There's 12,5% probability of changing the result more than 2 points between 1,200 matches and 4,000 matches.

There's 1,4% probability of changing the result more than 3 points between 1,200 matches and 4,000 matches.


So in theory there could be 3 points difference between 1,200 matches and 4,000 matches but the probably of it is about 1.4%. Btw, I've checked the result of this tactic and this tactic hit it.


Also, I want to add that there might be 1 - 1.5 points RNG even between two 4,000 matches tests of the same tactic. For example, if we take the current top tactic(424 Bombyte Tweak), which has a score of 57.4465 points, and we test it one more time for 4,000 matches then its score might vary +/- 1-1.5 points around 57.4465.

So you always should consider that there might be at least 1 point RNG even after 4,000 matches. In terms of FM, 1 point RNG is nothing because when you play FM in normal way and the length of your season is 38 matches then your RNG might be as high as 20-25 points and such RNG is a normal thing for underdogs and mid table teams, of course, for the strongest teams in the league the RNG is much smaller but still it's much higher than the 1 point that we have after 4,000 matches on our test. Expand


I did hit the jackpot! Btw i wasn't complain was just like the first time i did noticed with the new test league a 3 point different.

Delicious said: I did hit the jackpot! Btw i wasn't complain was just like the first time i did noticed with the new test league a 3 point different. Expand

Haha, sucks to be in the 1.4%

sponsorkindest said: Haha, sucks to be in the 1.4% Expand

Don't forget that "1.4%" is to go "up" and "down" by 3 points so the probability to go only "up" by 3 points is 2 times less, which will be "0.7%"

Let's say if you hit 55 points after 1,200 matches then the probability to improve your result by 3 points after 4,000 matches is only "0.7%".

Rince said: Don't forget that "1.4%" is to go "up" and "down" by 3 points so the probability to go only "up" by 3 points is 2 times less, which will be "0.7%"

Let's say if you hit 55 points after 1,200 matches then the probability to improve your result by 3 points after 4,000 matches is only "0.7%". Expand

thats a good point. thanks for pointing that out!