Carrusel 433 v2

Carrusel v2 - Wider and Higher

Follow-up to my first post, tested at 73.5 PTS, +32 GD, xG diff +26.9.

Same conditions as v1: OGC Nice, fresh save, original database, holiday, no transfers, training and opposition instructions delegated, same set piece routines.


CHANGES

Out of possession, the 5-2-3 becomes a 4-4-2:
Keeper: Goalkeeper -> Sweeper Keeper
Back line: five with the DM dropping in -> four with the DM staying in midfield
Front: one AM -> two AM, a channel midfielder pushing up beside the striker
Wide: Wingers -> Wide Midfielders
Defensive line: Much Lower -> Higher

In possession:
Attacking Width: Much Narrower -> Wider
Striker: Deep Lying Forward -> Channel Forward, with Come Deeper and Fewer Forward Runs


WHY

Two things in v1 I could never justify: a high press sitting on top of a Much Lower defensive line, and Much Narrower width in a shape whose inside forwards are told to hold the touchline. Attack narrow, then tell your widest players to stay wide. That is just fighting yourself.


MY READ

The width change works because of the player instructions, not in spite of them. On Much Narrower, telling the forwards to stay wider barely pulled them off the centre. On Wider they actually reach the touchline, the wing backs inherit the half spaces, and the two of them put 37 assists between them.

The 23 extra goals conceded are another matter. xGA went from 1.0 to 1.1 per game, so roughly 34 expected against in v1 and 37 in v2, against 25 and 48 actually conceded. Same quality of chance given up, a 20 goal swing in what went in. On 34 games I would call that variance rather than tactics, but I would rather be told than guess.

Thanks for reading.