Zippo
Hey,

I'm sure that many of you wonder how many matches it requites testing a tactic to get an accurate result? So we've tested FM RNG and found an answer. :)

We tested the same tactic for 10,944 matches and measured the RNG on different distances.


Here's you can download the screenshots of the tests results  - 10,944 Matches Test - Download

The screenshot of the tests results look like this:




We'll refer the average score after 10,944 matches as the "true score" and "Random Number Generation" as "RNG".

Please notice, for everyone's convenience the data is translated into "a typical 38 matches season".

After analyzing the data here's what we found:


If you test a tactic for 1 season ( 1 season x 38 matches = total 38 matches ):
- The highest RNG = 25.8 points away from the "true score"


If you test a tactic for 2 seasons ( 2 seasons x 38 matches = total 76 matches  ):
- The highest RNG = 23.8 points away from the "true score"


If you test a tactic for 4 seasons ( 4 seasons x 38 matches = total 152 matches ):
- The highest RNG = 11.6 points away from the "true score"


If you test a tactic for 8 seasons ( 8 seasons x 38 matches = total 304 matches ):
- The highest RNG = 8.4 points away from the "true score"


If you test a tactic for 12 seasons ( 12 seasons x 38 matches = total 456 matches ):
- The highest RNG = 6.6 points away from the "true score"


If you test a tactic for 24 seasons ( 24 seasons x 38 matches = total 912 matches ):
- The highest RNG = 4.3 points away from the "true score"


If you test a tactic for 48 seasons ( 48 seasons x 38 matches = 1,824 matches ):
- The highest RNG = 4.0 points away from the "true score"


If you test a tactic for 84 seasons ( 84 seasons x 38 matches =  3,192 matches ):
- The highest RNG = 1.9 point away from the "true score"


If you test a tactic for 168 seasons ( 168 seasons x 38 matches = 6,384 matches ):
- The highest RNG = 1 point away from the "true score"



As you can see if you test a tactic only for 1 season ( 38 matches ) and you hit the highest RNG then your result will be about 25.8 points away from the "true score" and if you want to test with an accuracy of 1 point then you need to test a tactic 168 seasons or 6,384 matches.

Of course, you can test a tactic only 1 season ( 38 matches ) and hit "the true result" but the probability of doing so is about 3% or so.




Please not, that our testing methodology eliminates many factors that increase the RNG:

- We set the morale and conditions of all players in the testing league to 100% and "freeze" it so the morale and conditions don't change at all. Please note, that's true for all the teams in the league the AI controlled teams and the human controlled teams.

- No player rotation happens. All the teams in the league use the same starting eleven all the time.

- No transfers can happen. AI managers can't be sacked.


If your testing methodology doesn't eliminate the factors above then the RNG in your tests will much higher than we got in our 10,944 matches test.



Please note, if you test tactics with a very strong team such as PSG in French league where your opponents are much weaker than your team then you the RNG will be very small because almost with any tactic you'll be getting 100% win rate the end of the season but don't be fooled by such low RNG, you need to understand when your team is much stronger than your opponents then you winning matches mostly due to having much better players than your opponents and the quality of your tactic doesn't make any significant difference and the opposite is also true when your team is much weaker than your opponents then you loosing matches mostly due to having much weaker players than your opponents and in this case your tactic also doesn't make any significant difference. So testing tactics with the strongest or the weakest team in the league isn't a good idea at all and you need something in the middle.
Zippo said: if nothing unexpected happens then at some point later today we'll start testing

unfortunately, "unexpected" has happened... during a migration process of the testing database an error happened so it may take one or two days to fix it :(
Tejash said: When is their testing going  to start any idea?

if nothing unexpected happens then at some point later today we'll start testing
Until we find a more sophisticated approach to the issue I suggest everyone to handle any 'plagiarism' issues the following way: if you think that someone uses your work without giving proper credit then try to reach that person via "Private Messages" and explain your concerns if you can't come to an agreement then create a thread in the following section - https://fm-arena.com/board/9-fair-play-commission/ explain the case and put it to the judgment of the FM community.
Mark said: @Zippo I was sure we had this discussion last year.

FM22 Discussion


Yes, I remember that discussion but unfortunately, I don't find it offers any convenient way to handle the matter so we're still looking and open for suggestions.
Hey there,

If you find that someone doesn't play "fair" by copping your or someone else's tactics or other work without giving proper credit then you can use this section to bring the attention of FM community to that fact.

PLEASE NOTE: Any accusations that aren't backed up by a detailed explanation and evidences will be removed.
AlexJV said: Hey, i completly understand ur point, but i dont see how u could say my tactic is plagiat, it's just Wide Diamond with what we know has been working since FM21, so i dont really know what to tell u, if my tactic is a problem, just delete the post it's fine to me !

Hey,

As I said in the opening post, we aren't going to 'delete' anything or accuse you or anyone else until we find a convenient way to handle the matter and what's mostly important until we determine clear criteria to define what can be called 'plagiarism'.

Now, we're asking the FM community to help us with that.
Hey there,

In light of upcoming FM23 tactic testing, we need your suggestions how to deal with 'plagiarism' or should we?

It's obvious for everyone that the match engine hasn't seen any significant changes for many years and it's just impossible to come up with something really new and unique.

At this moment you can take any tactic and say: "Hey! This tactic looks almost exactly like "Super Tactic" tactic by my friend Bob, which he created for FM16/FM17/FM18/FM19/FM20/FM21/FM22 ( pick any number you like :)  ) but only with few minor changes added."

For instance, look at this tactic by @AlexJV - https://fm-arena.com/thread/2705-dbl-v1-4-4-2-wide-diamond/

The tactic looks to me like almost a copy of @ZaZ's Fire 1.0 or Blue 4.0 but with minor tweaks added and I think in this case @AlexJV should gives credit to @ZaZ for his work.

But I guess there could be a different point of view like: "Hey, it isn't an exact copy because I see there're few different player instructions so he has the full right to present it as his own work".

I also can understand if someone questions: "Why we would bother with that stuff at all? For god’s sake, it's just a game!". But just think that people spend their time and put their efforts on trying, testing things and sharing their results and it isn't cool at all when someone just takes their work making few insignificant changes and present it as his own work without giving proper credit.

To be honest, our team just don't have enough free time to compare tactics finding similarities and then make a decision on whether there's enough difference or not, that would be a colossal work to do and also it would be very subjective because there's no clearly criteria to define what the difference should be like.

So we need your suggestions how to handle that and until we find a convenient way to deal with that matter I'll be interfering only in cases when someone making an exact copy of someone else tactic.

Looking forward to your suggestions!

Cheers.
deltasierra said: 써볼게요

Please, use English.

Thank you.
ZaZ said: P.S.: I got confused and answered something that had nothing to do.
@ZaZ, no worries. I've moved all the posts and discussion here.
Hey,

Here's a video I'm using ZaZ 4.0 tactic with Man Utd vs Man City in an away match





I've added few more videos.
Hey,

Here's a video I'm using the default Gegenpress 4-2-3-1 Positive tactic as Man Utd against Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool in away matches.






vs Man City



vs Arsenal



vs Liverpool
ZaZ said: Around the age of 18, it's around 50-50, and around the age of 23, match experience counts way more than training. If I remember well, the growth "stops" around the age of 27 or 28.

Here're results for Age = 18 and Age = 21

It looks to develop 18 years old players also must participate in competitive matches and without the participation the development rate will be much smaller.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
[ Age = 21 / Professionalism = 15 / Ambition = 15 / Potential Ability = 170 ]

"Group_1" players gain +8.4 "CA" at the end the season.

"Group_2" players gain +1.2 "CA" at the end the season.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
[ Age = 18 / Professionalism = 15 / Ambition = 15 / Potential Ability = 170 ]

"Group_1" players gain +7.1 "CA" at the end the season.

"Group_2" players gain +2.1 "CA" at the end the season.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
dzek said: I think there is another attribute which determine player growth instead all the above and this is Determination. If you can make more tests including Determination and then another tests to see which of the three attributes(Professionalism, Ambition and Determination) have more impact to each other.

Hey,

We've tested that found that Determination doesn't have a direct influence on the development rate.

Determination is more about how a player reacts to bad events during matches or bad results in general, for example, a player with a high Determination less likely drops his Morale after conceding a goal or being disappointed after losing a match.

dzek said: Another idea with this crucial tests is to find the peak age of each position for player growth so we can know when a player cant grow more and it starts to downgrade his attributes due to age. I know maybe this will not be so accurate to find the peak age of each position for different players but we maybe find a general peak age +/-1.

Well done 👏


The point at which a player starts to decline or stops developing is determined by a combination of the following factors: the difference between PA and CA and the level of "Professionalism" and "Ambition".
ZaZ said: I wonder about the difference between first team matches, youth competition matches and friendlies.

No doubts, it'd be great to know the difference between them and if we figure out how to test it properly then I'll let you know.
Hey there,

If you ever wonder what factors determine the development rate of your players then this post is for you!

I've been noticing that there're many people who wrongly think that in FM the training schedule and training settings are the key factors that determine the development rate of your players and when people don't see their players improving then they wrongly start to blame the training schedule and training settings for that.

Obviously, the training schedule and training settings have some influence on the development rate of your players but there are other factors that have much bigger impact on it than the training schedule.

It would be better to speak about the training schedule as about a tool that helps to direct the development and not to boost it.

Here are some of the factors that have a significant influence on the development rate of your players:

- The difference between "Potential Ability(PA)" and "Current Ability(CA)" of a player. The bigger the difference, the higher development rate is.

- Hidden attributes: "Professionalism" and "Ambition". The higher the attributes, the higher development rate is.

- Appearances number during a season. The higher the appearances number, the higher development is.

- How old a player. The younger, the higher development rate is.


Now, let's look at the result of our test to get a clue about how the factors listed above influence the the development rate of your players.


Test Configuration:

- The season lasts about 7 months ( 76 matches ).

- Players are split into two groups: "Group_1" and "Group_2".

- "Group_1" players participate in all 76 matches during the season.

- "Group_2" players don't participate in matches at all during the season.

- "Current Ability"(CA) of the players at the start of season is "150".

- The Age of the players at the start of the season is "21".

- The best training faculties facilities.

- "Five" stars coaches in every area. 


-------------------------------------------------------------------
TEST #1
[ Professionalism = 5 / Ambition = 5 / Potential Ability = 160 ]

"Group_1" players gain +2.7 "CA" at the end the season.

"Group_2" players gain +0.2 "CA" at the end the season.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
TEST #2
[ Professionalism = 5 / Ambition = 5 / Potential Ability = 170 ]

"Group_1" players gain +4.4 "CA" at the end the season.

"Group_2" players gain +0.2 "CA" at the end the season.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
TEST #3
[ Professionalism = 5 / Ambition = 5 / Potential Ability = 200 ]

"Group_1" players gain +4.8 "CA" at the end the season.

"Group_2" players gain +0.2 "CA" at the end the season.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
TEST #4
[ Professionalism = 10 / Ambition = 10 / Potential Ability = 160 ]

"Group_1" players gain +3.6 "CA" at the end the season.

"Group_2" players gain +0.4 "CA" at the end the season.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
TEST #5
[ Professionalism = 10 / Ambition = 10 / Potential Ability = 170 ]

"Group_1" players gain +6.6 "CA" at the end the season.

"Group_2" players gain +0.5 "CA" at the end the season.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
TEST #6
[ Professionalism = 10 / Ambition = 10 / Potential Ability = 200 ]

"Group_1" players gain +7.5 "CA" at the end the season.

"Group_2" players gain +0.5 "CA" at the end the season.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
TEST #7
[ Professionalism = 15 / Ambition = 15 / Potential Ability = 160 ]

"Group_1" players gain +4.5 "CA" at the end the season.

"Group_2" players gain +1.1 "CA" at the end the season.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
TEST #8
[ Professionalism = 15 / Ambition = 15 / Potential Ability = 170 ]

"Group_1" players gain +8.4 "CA" at the end the season.

"Group_2" players gain +1.2 "CA" at the end the season.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
TEST #9
[ Professionalism = 15 / Ambition = 15 / Potential Ability = 200 ]

"Group_1" players gain +8.7 "CA" at the end the season.

"Group_2" players gain +1.3 "CA" at the end the season.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
TEST #10
[ Professionalism = 20 / Ambition = 20 / Potential Ability = 160 ]

"Group_1" players gain +4.9 "CA" at the end the season.

"Group_2" players gain +1.2 "CA" at the end the season.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
TEST #11
[ Professionalism = 20 / Ambition = 20 / Potential Ability = 170 ]

"Group_1" players gain +9.5 "CA" at the end the season.

"Group_2" players gain +2.0 "CA" at the end the season.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
TEST #12
[ Professionalism = 20 / Ambition = 20 / Potential Ability = 200 ]

"Group_1" players gain +10.9 "CA" at the end the season.

"Group_2" players gain +2.3 "CA" at the end the season.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
TEST #13
[ Age = 28 / Professionalism = 15 / Ambition = 15 / Potential Ability = 170 ]

Players in "Group_1" gain +1.2 "CA" at the end the season.

Players in "Group_2" gain +0.1 "CA" at the end the season.

Notice: in this test the "Age" was increased from "21" to "28" and as you can see it made a huge a difference compared to "Test #8" ( all other parameters were the same except the Age ). The CA gain decreased from "+8.4" to "+1.2".

-------------------------------------------------------------------



Conclusions & Observations

- If you look at the "Test #1" then you'll notice that the players in "Group_1" gained only +2.7 "CA" after 7 months ( 76 matches played ) and that's a very little gain, for example, 1 Point of Acceleration attribute costs about 2.4 "CA" points for a Striker so it would take 1 season just to improve Acceleration attribute by 1 point. You may wonder why the gain was so small, that's because the difference between "PA" and "CA" was only 10 Points ( 160PA-150CA = 10 ) and "Professionalism" & "Ambition" attributes were too low ( about 5 ). So as you can see in that case it doesn't matter whether you have the best training schedule, perfect coaches and training facilities - it won't help. The development rate still will be very small or nothing.

- If look at the development rate of the "Group_2" players then you'll notice that the "Group_2" players don't develop at all in any test. That's because in FM if players don't participate in competitive matches then they don't develop so it doesn't matter whether you have the best training schedule, perfect coaches and training facilities - it won't help, if a player doesn't participate in competitive matches at regular basis then he won't develop, no matter how good your training schedule is.

- If look at the "Test #13" then you'll notice that increasing Age from "21" to "28" almost stopped the development. It shows that in FM players who are around age 28 don't develop at all and you can't do anything about that and it doesn't matter whether you have the best training schedule, perfect coaches and training facilities - it won't help.

- If you look at the "Test #12" then you'll notice that it produced the highest CA gain. That was possible due a huge different difference between PA and CA ( 200 "PA" - 150 "CA" = 50 points difference ) and a very high level of "Professionalism" and "Ambition" attributes, which was "20".

- If you look at the tests then you'll notice that a very strong development happens when a player has at least a 20 points difference between PA and CA, his Professionalism & Ambition attributes are higher than "10", he is younger than 28 years old and he plays at regular basis at least 1 match per week.
Probably, at some point later today I'll post the result of our tests that reveals how the following factors affect the development rate of players:

- The difference between "Potential Ability" and "Current Ability"
- Hidden Attributes: "Professionalism" and "Ambition"
- Appearances number
- Age

I can say that the factors above have much bigger impact than the training


https://fm-arena.com/thread/2671-development-rate-and-training/
ZaZ said: Anyway, when you train a player in another position, it might increase the CA by a couple of points
To be exact: training a player in another position doesn't directly affect his CA at all, it just increases the position rating, which varies from 1 to 20 but gaining the position rating increases the CA "price" of attributes (not the CA itself) and if a player doesn't get a CA promotion/increase after position training then some of his attributes will inevitably decrease to "fit" into the CA value that he had before the position training.

So training an additional position is like exchanging some level of the attributes for the position rating.
Middleweight165 said: Why does Current Ability change if the position value changes? I would assume the CA remained the same if you changed a players position in the editor. Why would that then mean losing potential ability points?

For example, let's take a player with the following parameters:

"15" Finishing
"10" Tackling

and assume that this player is capable of playing only at one position, which is "Central Striker" position so in this case "1" point of "Finishing" attribute would cost him "1.6 CA" and "1" point of "Tackling" would cost him "0.2 CA".

As you can see the "Tackling" attribute is cheap for a pure striker, it costs him only about "0.2 CA" but the "Finishing" attribute is expensive, it costs him "1.6 CA".

Now, let's calculate the required CA for having the attributes above:

Finishing  "1.6 CA" x 15 =  "24 CA"
Tackling  "0.2 CA" x 10 = "2 CA"

"24 CA" + "2 CA" = "26 CA". - So our "pure" striker must have "26 CA".

But what would happen if we decide to train our "pure" striker to be able to play "Central Defender"? In this case, if he won't get a CA increase then his attributes will drop because the cost of the "Tackling" attribute will greatly increase for him from "0.2 CA" to "1.2 CA", in other words, he won't be able to afford having "15" Finishing and "10" Tackling with his "26 CA" budget and the only way to avoid the attribute drop is getting his CA increased but if he doesn't manage to get a CA increase during that period then as I said his attributes will drop.

That's why you always must be carefully with a new/additional position training because gaining position rating always increases the CA "price" the attributes, and if a CA promotion/increase doesn't follow after a position rating gain then the attributes drop to fit into the CA.

Of course, I greatly simplified many things in the explanation above but I hope it still gives a good clue of how it works.