I decided to update my Winx tactic looking at the structures that have been successful so far. Moved a defender up to DM and went with 3 DCs at the back so pretty much still 5 defend and 5 attack. I looked at the defensive player settings for DMs and DCs in tactics SIU, Roll the Dice and Westhammer, and then changed my position settings. I changed the F9 to an AF.
I used St Albans, predicted 16th. The first run scored 110 goals and conceded 85. Tweaked some of the settings and ended with version 2 doing sensationally well. The defence is still leaky but the scoring potential is sensational, 131 goals in the test season. I cant recall seeing a formation like this in FM23. There were 8 red cards and 123 yellows, so could probably have done a fair bit better if I was playing instead of holiday mode.
I still need to play with the set pieces but think it is on the right track.
Anyhow, give it a try and let me know what you think.
The screenshot of the tests results look like this:
The average score after 10,944 matches will be referred to the "true score" and "Random Number Generation" will be referred to "RNG"
Please notice, for everyone's convenience the data is translated into "a typical 38 matches season".
After analyzing the data here's what we found:
If you test a tactic for 1 season ( 1 season x 38 matches = total 38 matches ): - The highest RNG = 25.8 points away from the "true score"
If you test a tactic for 2 seasons ( 2 seasons x 38 matches = total 76 matches ): - The highest RNG = 23.8 points away from the "true score"
If you test a tactic for 4 seasons ( 4 seasons x 38 matches = total 152 matches ): - The highest RNG = 11.6 points away from the "true score"
If you test a tactic for 8 seasons ( 8 seasons x 38 matches = total 304 matches ): - The highest RNG = 8.4 points away from the "true score"
If you test a tactic for 12 seasons ( 12 seasons x 38 matches = total 456 matches ): - The highest RNG = 6.6 points away from the "true score"
If you test a tactic for 24 seasons ( 24 seasons x 38 matches = total 912 matches ): - The highest RNG = 4.3 points away from the "true score"
If you test a tactic for 48 seasons ( 48 seasons x 38 matches = 1,824 matches ): - The highest RNG = 3.2 points away from the "true score"
If you test a tactic for 84 seasons ( 84 seasons x 38 matches = 3,192 matches ): - The highest RNG = 1.9 point away from the "true score"
If you test a tactic for 168 seasons ( 168 seasons x 38 matches = 6,384 matches ): - The highest RNG = 1 point away from the "true score"
As you can see if you test a tactic only for 1 season ( 38 matches ) and you hit the highest RNG then your result will be about 25.8 points away from the "true score" and if you want to test with an accuracy of 1 point then you need to test a tactic 168 seasons or 6,384 matches.
Of course, you can test a tactic only 1 season ( 38 matches ) and hit "the true result" but the probability of doing so is about 3% or so.
Please not, that our testing methodology eliminates many factors that increase the RNG:
- We set the morale and conditions of all players in the testing league to 100% and "freeze" it so the morale and conditions don't change at all. That's true for the AI controlled teams and human controlled teams.
- All the teams in the league use the same starting eleven all the time. No rotation happens.
- No transfers happen. AI managers can't be sacked.
If your testing methodology doesn't eliminate the factors above then the RNG in your tests will much higher than what we got in our 10,944 matches test.
Also, if you test tactics with a very strong team such as PSG in French league where your opponents are much weaker than your team then you won't have any RNG at all because almost with any tactic you'll be getting about 110-114 pts at the end of the season but don't be fooled by such low RNG, you need to understand when your team is much stronger than your opponents then you winning matches mostly due to having much better players than your opponents and the quality of your tactic doesn't make any significant difference and when your team is much weaker than your opponents then you loosing matches mostly due to having much weaker players than your opponents and in this case your tactic also doesn't make any significant difference. So testing tactics with the strongest or the weakest team in the league isn't a good idea at all and you need something in the middle. Expand
Wow, you guys are really getting through the testing now you are up and running. Thanks a lot. The community really appreciates all you guys do.
Tejash said: @Mark Do you think this tactic will top your tests that you did recently? Expand
I did 3 tests, not the full 12 and it was sitting above 91 points, so in the mix. I wont keep testing because I want to start a real game now. DBL and TheAmazingHIndle were both testing well in that test too.
I have improved upon my tactic from last year which tested well in my Beta tests. This one is definitely better. The offset midfield seems to work and bringing in a Vol for RPM at DM seems to work.
A small movement of a handful of points and Roll the Dice moves down the list. I still think a very stable tactic and so far has the best defence. Interestingly Fire 0.2 moved fractionally in front of Fire 0.3. A mere 2.6 points between the top 10 tactics. All these are definitely worthy of playing in your game. Onto the final Group. It will probably be tomorrow before I finish it.
Tejash said: @Mark Are you sure use SIU? But isn't rollthedice at the top presently? Expand
As I said, it is safer to use the results from 552 matches instead of promising ones with just 183 matches. Given the margin of error is around 6 points, anything in the top 12 or so could end up being the best tactic. So you could look for a formation you like and try it, or one that suits your squad. I suggested SIU as it is the leader of the 552 match brigade.
You could look at Solaris results, he tests with Arsenal. These are his best:
Tejash said: Fire is definitely not working as its leaking lot of goals and losing easy home matches too..@Mark as per your last test does it mean roll the dice is the new number 1 tactic? Expand
I would wait for the full 552 matches. I am using Winx as my main (only because it is my tactic and I have tweaked it a little), Fire for attacking and Roll the Dice for defending. If I was you I would use 4231 SIU at present, until all the results are in. But by then we should stat to have real tests from FM Arena. But really just about any of the tactics in the top 10 should be ok.
Update after Group 11. Started Group 12 and hopefully I will finish in the morning
Finishing the 12th season Fire dropped down slightly. The teams at the top that have done 12 seasons are so very close, remembering the margin of error is around 6 points. Roll the Dice is in both the finally 2 Groups and Perfect is in the final Group.
I have downloaded your tactic for testing. As I said, I still have 3 groups after the current one to test. I will then look at any emerging tactics to test. Yours will be included. I cant give you an estimated time yet.
A quick update from my testing. I have now added the new 3 tactics from @ZaZ and another high download tactic from FM Base. So that brings it to 18 tactics.
The advice from FM Arena on margin of error for their testing was as follows:
12 seasons up to 6.6 points from true score 8 seasons up to 8.4 points from true score 4 seasons up to 11.6 points from true score
These are based on 38 match seasons and mine are 46 match seasons. Clearly their testing is much more precise than anything that I can all do. But I am hoping that mine will be reasonable with 12 seasons of testing, so that is what I am aiming for. This equates to 552 matches. I wont be testing the bottom 2 sides as I think they are too far behind to make it to the top. This means 13 groups of 4 teams with 4 tests each group. I am currently up to testing group 10 first test season.
The results to date are below. Overall matches played is listed, with the remainder of the stats based on a per season average for a 46 game season. Of interest is ZaZ Fire 0.3 goals for and percentage of matches won. Also Roll the Dice defensive stat. The best of the 12 seasons completed teams is still 4231 SIU.
Have you tried it any "professional" league?
I'm afraid you'll get butchered with it in any top league... you should give it a go in EPL
I might give it a run with Everton later tonight. My save is up to the first competitive game so I want to get a few games in there first.
I used St Albans, predicted 16th. The first run scored 110 goals and conceded 85. Tweaked some of the settings and ended with version 2 doing sensationally well. The defence is still leaky but the scoring potential is sensational, 131 goals in the test season. I cant recall seeing a formation like this in FM23. There were 8 red cards and 123 yellows, so could probably have done a fair bit better if I was playing instead of holiday mode.
I still need to play with the set pieces but think it is on the right track.
Anyhow, give it a try and let me know what you think.
I'm sure that many of you wonder how many matches it requites testing a tactic to get an accurate result? So we've tested that and found an answer.
We tested one tactic 10,944 matches to measure the RNG on different distances.
Here's you can download the screenshots of the tests results - 10,944 Matches Test - Download
The screenshot of the tests results look like this:
The average score after 10,944 matches will be referred to the "true score" and "Random Number Generation" will be referred to "RNG"
Please notice, for everyone's convenience the data is translated into "a typical 38 matches season".
After analyzing the data here's what we found:
If you test a tactic for 1 season ( 1 season x 38 matches = total 38 matches ):
- The highest RNG = 25.8 points away from the "true score"
If you test a tactic for 2 seasons ( 2 seasons x 38 matches = total 76 matches ):
- The highest RNG = 23.8 points away from the "true score"
If you test a tactic for 4 seasons ( 4 seasons x 38 matches = total 152 matches ):
- The highest RNG = 11.6 points away from the "true score"
If you test a tactic for 8 seasons ( 8 seasons x 38 matches = total 304 matches ):
- The highest RNG = 8.4 points away from the "true score"
If you test a tactic for 12 seasons ( 12 seasons x 38 matches = total 456 matches ):
- The highest RNG = 6.6 points away from the "true score"
If you test a tactic for 24 seasons ( 24 seasons x 38 matches = total 912 matches ):
- The highest RNG = 4.3 points away from the "true score"
If you test a tactic for 48 seasons ( 48 seasons x 38 matches = 1,824 matches ):
- The highest RNG = 3.2 points away from the "true score"
If you test a tactic for 84 seasons ( 84 seasons x 38 matches = 3,192 matches ):
- The highest RNG = 1.9 point away from the "true score"
If you test a tactic for 168 seasons ( 168 seasons x 38 matches = 6,384 matches ):
- The highest RNG = 1 point away from the "true score"
As you can see if you test a tactic only for 1 season ( 38 matches ) and you hit the highest RNG then your result will be about 25.8 points away from the "true score" and if you want to test with an accuracy of 1 point then you need to test a tactic 168 seasons or 6,384 matches.
Of course, you can test a tactic only 1 season ( 38 matches ) and hit "the true result" but the probability of doing so is about 3% or so.
Please not, that our testing methodology eliminates many factors that increase the RNG:
- We set the morale and conditions of all players in the testing league to 100% and "freeze" it so the morale and conditions don't change at all. That's true for the AI controlled teams and human controlled teams.
- All the teams in the league use the same starting eleven all the time. No rotation happens.
- No transfers happen. AI managers can't be sacked.
If your testing methodology doesn't eliminate the factors above then the RNG in your tests will much higher than what we got in our 10,944 matches test.
Also, if you test tactics with a very strong team such as PSG in French league where your opponents are much weaker than your team then you won't have any RNG at all because almost with any tactic you'll be getting about 110-114 pts at the end of the season but don't be fooled by such low RNG, you need to understand when your team is much stronger than your opponents then you winning matches mostly due to having much better players than your opponents and the quality of your tactic doesn't make any significant difference and when your team is much weaker than your opponents then you loosing matches mostly due to having much weaker players than your opponents and in this case your tactic also doesn't make any significant difference. So testing tactics with the strongest or the weakest team in the league isn't a good idea at all and you need something in the middle.
Wow, you guys are really getting through the testing now you are up and running. Thanks a lot. The community really appreciates all you guys do.
I did 3 tests, not the full 12 and it was sitting above 91 points, so in the mix. I wont keep testing because I want to start a real game now. DBL and TheAmazingHIndle were both testing well in that test too.
Thanks
I tested with St. Albans and Liverpool.
Results below
St. Albans
Liverpool
I wont be retesting. I will rely on what comes from FM Arena. That was just a bit of fun for me waiting for the release.
Decision: Too close to call.
Click on Solaris and then on find posts. He mostly posts tactic tests. You can then look through them
A small movement of a handful of points and Roll the Dice moves down the list. I still think a very stable tactic and so far has the best defence. Interestingly Fire 0.2 moved fractionally in front of Fire 0.3. A mere 2.6 points between the top 10 tactics. All these are definitely worthy of playing in your game. Onto the final Group. It will probably be tomorrow before I finish it.
As I said, it is safer to use the results from 552 matches instead of promising ones with just 183 matches. Given the margin of error is around 6 points, anything in the top 12 or so could end up being the best tactic. So you could look for a formation you like and try it, or one that suits your squad. I suggested SIU as it is the leader of the 552 match brigade.
You could look at Solaris results, he tests with Arsenal. These are his best:
Fire 1.0 Light is Cautious mentality. Standard Fire is Positive mentality
I would wait for the full 552 matches. I am using Winx as my main (only because it is my tactic and I have tweaked it a little), Fire for attacking and Roll the Dice for defending. If I was you I would use 4231 SIU at present, until all the results are in. But by then we should stat to have real tests from FM Arena. But really just about any of the tactics in the top 10 should be ok.
Finishing the 12th season Fire dropped down slightly. The teams at the top that have done 12 seasons are so very close, remembering the margin of error is around 6 points. Roll the Dice is in both the finally 2 Groups and Perfect is in the final Group.
I have downloaded your tactic for testing. As I said, I still have 3 groups after the current one to test. I will then look at any emerging tactics to test. Yours will be included. I cant give you an estimated time yet.
Roll the Dice thread
It is at post number 5 on this thread
The advice from FM Arena on margin of error for their testing was as follows:
12 seasons up to 6.6 points from true score
8 seasons up to 8.4 points from true score
4 seasons up to 11.6 points from true score
These are based on 38 match seasons and mine are 46 match seasons. Clearly their testing is much more precise than anything that I can all do. But I am hoping that mine will be reasonable with 12 seasons of testing, so that is what I am aiming for. This equates to 552 matches. I wont be testing the bottom 2 sides as I think they are too far behind to make it to the top. This means 13 groups of 4 teams with 4 tests each group. I am currently up to testing group 10 first test season.
The results to date are below. Overall matches played is listed, with the remainder of the stats based on a per season average for a 46 game season. Of interest is ZaZ Fire 0.3 goals for and percentage of matches won. Also Roll the Dice defensive stat. The best of the 12 seasons completed teams is still 4231 SIU.
I am only half way through the testing with ZaZ Fire 0.3.